CORONAVIRUS CONCERN 3/10/20
Friends and Family,
Please consider the following information concerning the possibilities of a Coronavirus Pandemic. Ignoring what is unfolding is no longer an option.
Friends and Family,
Please consider the following information concerning the possibilities of a Coronavirus Pandemic. Ignoring what is unfolding is no longer an option.
We need to inform ourselves on what is possible with the Coronavirus (COVID-19), discuss the available information, and prepare for the worst-case scenarios, such as what is unfolding currently for the people of Italy.
If you choose to read this, please understand my intention is simply to inform you, open up a discussion on the available information, and ultimately, I hope this motivates you to properly prepare for what is possible, sooner rather than once it is too late. Taking action to stop your own family’s infection with Lysol and bleach flying off the shelves is one thing, but lockdowns and quarantines require additional preparation.
Governments around the world are understandably trying to minimize panic and stabilize economic markets as the virus spreads, but we must be honest with ourselves and our friends and loved ones in order to be properly prepared if our hometowns and hospitals have increasing cases of Coronavirus. That is my sole intention here, to motivate you to prepare.
Up until the past few days, I have mostly ignored this thing, as many people have been doing. Over the past 24 hours, after talking with an online friend from Italy, and further analyzing available data, I realized what he is experiencing in Italy could very well be our reality anywhere, wherever you may live.
Almost everyone I have spoken to once I opened my mind and shared the very real possibilities have had the same response: “Influenza kills hundreds of thousands every year and the mortality rate of COVID-19 is only 3%. As long as you are healthy and not autoimmune compromised, what do you have to worry about?” This is classic ostrich effect, something I too was experiencing until yesterday, and I will explain why. In short, tens of millions died from the Spanish Flu from 1911-1918, and the mortality rate of that was lower. In addition, those who have currently contracted COVID-19 have had relatively great medical attention. If medical systems become overwhelmed with cases, such as what has happened in northern Italy, the infection rate and mortality rate can very likely increase rapidly. It was 4.9% in Italy yesterday. Even if you are not worried about the potential health effects (do you not have friends and family who are older or have autoimmune diseases?), the economic impacts can become catastrophic and life-changing. I hope the effects of this are minimized, and we don’t get there, but Italy is there. We must prepare for this possibility…
We must ask ourselves: If what is unfolding in Italy comes to America, and the lockdown lasts for months or years, am I prepared?
This is a brief analysis of what has happened with our current pandemic risk and a comparison to the historical data on similar, past pandemics, particularly the most recent big one in 1918, the Spanish Influenza.
If you choose to read this, please understand my intention is simply to inform you, open up a discussion on the available information, and ultimately, I hope this motivates you to properly prepare for what is possible, sooner rather than once it is too late. Taking action to stop your own family’s infection with Lysol and bleach flying off the shelves is one thing, but lockdowns and quarantines require additional preparation.
Governments around the world are understandably trying to minimize panic and stabilize economic markets as the virus spreads, but we must be honest with ourselves and our friends and loved ones in order to be properly prepared if our hometowns and hospitals have increasing cases of Coronavirus. That is my sole intention here, to motivate you to prepare.
Up until the past few days, I have mostly ignored this thing, as many people have been doing. Over the past 24 hours, after talking with an online friend from Italy, and further analyzing available data, I realized what he is experiencing in Italy could very well be our reality anywhere, wherever you may live.
Almost everyone I have spoken to once I opened my mind and shared the very real possibilities have had the same response: “Influenza kills hundreds of thousands every year and the mortality rate of COVID-19 is only 3%. As long as you are healthy and not autoimmune compromised, what do you have to worry about?” This is classic ostrich effect, something I too was experiencing until yesterday, and I will explain why. In short, tens of millions died from the Spanish Flu from 1911-1918, and the mortality rate of that was lower. In addition, those who have currently contracted COVID-19 have had relatively great medical attention. If medical systems become overwhelmed with cases, such as what has happened in northern Italy, the infection rate and mortality rate can very likely increase rapidly. It was 4.9% in Italy yesterday. Even if you are not worried about the potential health effects (do you not have friends and family who are older or have autoimmune diseases?), the economic impacts can become catastrophic and life-changing. I hope the effects of this are minimized, and we don’t get there, but Italy is there. We must prepare for this possibility…
We must ask ourselves: If what is unfolding in Italy comes to America, and the lockdown lasts for months or years, am I prepared?
This is a brief analysis of what has happened with our current pandemic risk and a comparison to the historical data on similar, past pandemics, particularly the most recent big one in 1918, the Spanish Influenza.
1918 Spanish Influenza – “It is estimated that one third of the global population was infected, and the World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). Estimates vary as to the total number who died. An estimate from 1991 says it killed 25–39 million people.”
Obviously, our medical systems have come a long way in the past 100 years, which should give us all hope, but the problem is if this thing spreads rapidly in more dense populations today than in 1918, the medical system advancements become irrelevant once those infected overwhelm the capacity of medical systems. They are already reportedly providing and denying medical care in Italy, based on limited capacity of medical care and likelihood of survival.
Let’s consider the data from 1918 and calculate current possibilities.
1918 Global population – 1.8 Billion
2020 Global population – 7.8 Billion
1918 Spanish Influenza 2-3% mortality rate of 500,000,000 global infections = ~15 Million deaths (WHO estimate 20-50 million died)
1918 Spanish Influenza 2-3% mortality rate of 500,000,000 global infections = ~15 Million deaths (WHO estimate 20-50 million died)
2020 Coronavirus currently reported at 3.4% mortality rate…if 1/3 of global population is infected = ~87 Million deaths
Here's why this concerns me. First of all, Coronavirus (COVID-19) currently has a higher mortality rate than the Spanish Influenza, estimated at 3.4% by the World Health Organization (BUT… Italy was at 4.9% on 3/9/20) and as stated, it could become worse.
Hopefully, a vaccine is developed quickly and the spread slows, but if the Italian lockdown becomes an American lockdown, what do we need to do to prepare?
That is a real possibility that we should not ignore at this very moment. The following is suggested preparations for the possibility of worst-case scenarios. Unfortunately, the prepper trend in recent years has sometimes seemed nutty, but the reality of the need for preparations seem more real now than in my entire lifetime.
Here's why this concerns me. First of all, Coronavirus (COVID-19) currently has a higher mortality rate than the Spanish Influenza, estimated at 3.4% by the World Health Organization (BUT… Italy was at 4.9% on 3/9/20) and as stated, it could become worse.
Hopefully, a vaccine is developed quickly and the spread slows, but if the Italian lockdown becomes an American lockdown, what do we need to do to prepare?
That is a real possibility that we should not ignore at this very moment. The following is suggested preparations for the possibility of worst-case scenarios. Unfortunately, the prepper trend in recent years has sometimes seemed nutty, but the reality of the need for preparations seem more real now than in my entire lifetime.
My family has endured severe hurricanes for generations, experiencing short-term need for survival preparation as life as we know it changes following disasters, but a few days or weeks without electricity and access to stores may become months if the government takes steps to stop the spread of Coronavirus as they are now seeing in Italy. If people are not able to work, how much of our vital needs become limited or unavailable. It seems unreal to consider, but how bad could it actually get? It is better to be prepared and never need your supplies than to need your supplies and reach a point of desperation. This is a bit exhaustive and overwhelming, but everyone should take this information into consideration, prepare your family appropriately, and feel free to share your thoughts.
The following has been passed around by family for awhile. I'm not sure of the source, but take it into consideration to prepare yourselves for any types of disasters, quarantines, or lockdowns. This seems more needed now than ever. I hope it's not!
BASIC LIST OF SUGGESTED ITEMS
FOR LONG TERM SURVIVAL
FOR LONG TERM SURVIVAL
Some people are saying we should prepare for at least 7 days, but the way things go after a hurricane, tornado, floods, loss of electricity and the fact that these disasters will continue and perhaps even get worse in coming years according to trends, one week is not enough. Some have said 7 years, but that seems too long so do what you can. Be sure to use the older stocked goods first and replace them with new. Otherwise you will end up with all old food you might not even want to eat. Always check canned tomatoes for spoilage, as even in the can they can spoil. Most other foods last a long time.
1. Water stored to last at least 7 days, at one gallon per day per person. (If you buy cases of l/2 litres - you can buy enough to last a couple of months) Recently, people are saying that water in plastic is toxic, so store water in glass if possible.
Homeland Security recommends 7 days for survival, but in recent years, some people don't have electricity or heat for
up to 3 weeks, so to be really safe - plan for at least 3 weeks.
up to 3 weeks, so to be really safe - plan for at least 3 weeks.
2. A good canteen and basins to catch rainwater. Also have a good supply of water purification tablets or bleach, or plan to boil your water. The surest way to purify water is to boil it for 15 to 20 minutes.
Note: I have received arguments that boiling for longer than 5 minutes will just waste good water, but 15 minutes is
safer to kill Cryptospiridium.
safer to kill Cryptospiridium.
3. Food, per person, for one year: (Divide by 12 for 1 month)
Wheat - 300 lbs.
Rice - 100 lbs.
Beans, Peas, Lentils, 50 lbs. each
Honey or Sugar - 60 lbs.
Salt - 3 lbs. (Get 6 lbs to be sure) (See below)
Cayenne Pepper - 1 large can
Herbal Seasonings
Dried Milk - 80 lbs.
Peanut Butter - 50 lbs.
Dried Fruit
Canned food, or dried (ready to mix) food
Oatmeal - 50 lbs.
Alfalfa Seeds - 10 lbs.
Sprouts (see below)
Canned Sardines, tuna, salmon
More recently, I am finding that any food that is freeze dried is the way to go of the future. Especially like black beans - with water dumped over them makes a good hamburger replacement for dinner. Freeze dried fruits make great smoothies or even a soda with one of those new Soda Streamers, but you need spare CO 2 cartridges as well.
More recently, I am finding that any food that is freeze dried is the way to go of the future. Especially like black beans - with water dumped over them makes a good hamburger replacement for dinner. Freeze dried fruits make great smoothies or even a soda with one of those new Soda Streamers, but you need spare CO 2 cartridges as well.
We also like to treat ourselves to baby marshmallows. I could skip a meal with those. They keep forever in the plastic bags they come in, but put them in a closed container to keep the mice out.
If you have a baby, include formula and baby food. If you have pets, you will want food for them as well. Store food needs in waterproof containers, capable of also protecting against insects and mice. Use Steel garbage cans or plastic 5 gallon buckets. The vacuum sealed method is also very good. If you are storing nuts or oatmeal, they smell and taste bad after a while, so they will need to be rotated. For all storing of food, the rule is: use up the old and replace with the new.
Also, buy mice and rat traps and don't forget to use them.
NOTE; I recommend freezing nuts for storage.
4. Manual grain grinder
5. Medicines - Assemble a standard first aid kit, with a comprehensive first aid book. Also include things for headache, upset stomach, congestion, colds, such as Pepto Bismol, aspirin, Tylenol, Excedrin, disinfectants, prescription medicines; and anything else you use regularly. Include vitamins, apple cider vinegar, honey, garlic, sage tea for colds, mint tea, golden seal, brandy (good as medicine), herbal tinctures, hops, catnip (which helps you sleep), herbs for cooking, including dried garlic and onions, cayenne pepper, cumin, basil, and coriander and salt. After you've been eating rice and beans for a few days, they'll need lots of help to make them taste good. Add to this list things such as Colloid Silver, and perhaps even your own Colloid Silver maker. It isn't expensive to make your own Colloid Silver. Also don't forget sunscreen - nobody is safe in the sun long-term anymore.
Also learn about herbal medicines and if you have space, grow some of your own - most are perennials and once you get the plant growing, its yours for as long as you take care of it.
See: http://www.earthmountainview.
6. Toothbrushes, baking soda or salt to brush with, a good supply of dental floss (which can be used for other things as well) and another items you need for good tooth care. Stay away from toothpaste that has fluoride in it or you will kill your brain over time.
7. Extra eye glasses
8. For a camp kitchen you need: camp stove with good supply of fuel (in wooded areas, all you need are rocks and a flat tin or grill), pots and pans, plates and bowls (unbreakable) (you can use Army surplus camp kits) cooking utensils, knife, forks, spoon, spatula, biodegradable dish soap, towels, bucket to carry water, dish pan, matches dipped in wax and stored in waterproof containers.
9. A good tent, sleeping bag for each person, extra blankets, sleeping pads, and ground cloth - and another waterproof tarp to cover your camp gear.
10. Clothing - Have clothing for all weather. Include a good warm coat and sweaters, hat for rain or shine, rain gear, a good pair of hiking boots that will take years to wear out, warm winter underwear, wool socks, summer socks (don't wear socks with holes in them as they cause blisters) (learn to darn socks) work gloves, hats, and whatever else you need for warmth and protection.
11. Hunting equipment. Hunting might be necessary for survival in some situations. Be prepared both with equipment and knowledge of how to use the equipment. First choice of a gun is a .22 caliber rifle. You can kill anything up to a deer with it. Purchase 500 rounds of .22 hollow point bullets. If you are not a good marksman, then get a 30-30 or 30-06 and at least 200 shells. A shotgun comes in handy for shooting things flying or running. The bow and arrow is still one of the best weapons. You will have to practice, and of course, you can never run out of shells. If you want to be unseen and unheard by unfriendly people, this would be a good idea. Also, take a compass with you.
12. Fishing equipment. - Get basic equipment. Include assorted sized hooks, fish lines, sinkers, etc. Fishing takes time, but if you are moving toward long-term survival, time is something you may have plenty of.
13. Wood stove. Get one with a secondary burn chamber. It uses less wood and creates less pollution. Get one with a flat top for cooking on.
14. Chain saw, extra gas and oil, spark plugs, chain, etc.
15. Bow saw and a tool to set the teeth with, extra blades.
16. Skill saw (for when you have electricity)
17. Axe, hatchet, files.
18. Spitting maul
19. Flashlights with extra batteries and bulbs; candles; propane, kerosene, or Coleman lantern with plenty of fuel, and extra wicks and mantles.
20. A good pocket knife and a sharpening stone.
21. Hammers, assorted nails, assorted screws, wrench set, pliers, wire cutters, screw drivers, pipe wrench, 200 feet of 1/4 inch nylon rope, duct tape.
22. Shovels, spades, hoes, and rakes with strong teeth
23. Charging system - wind, water, or solar - to pump water and provide electricity
24. Backpack - Waterproof. If you are forced to relocate, it may be all that goes with you.
25. Compass.
26. Up-to-date maps of the area you want to live in. This will show you land and water away from human habitation.
27. A 4 wheel drive vehicle with all the proper tools for maintaining it. Extra parts.
28. Tire chains for snow.
29. Radio. Have more than one. electrical and battery operated. Get a crank operated one. (See C. Crane company for this information) You'll want to know what's going on in the outside world.
30. Soap for laundry and bathing. Also learn how to make your own and have those supplies handy.
31. Natural insect repellent.
32. A mirror. You'll want to see yourself, but you can use it for signaling as well.
33. Extra toilet paper. Also keep old newspapers and telephone directories for emergencies. (Hint: if you need to use old newspaper, crinkle it up and straighten it out several times first -- it's much softer!)
34. Female needs - (Use cloth pads you can wash)
35. Baby diapers. (Use cloth you can wash) Older kids can go bare bottom when necessary. Indians used moss and grass when necessary.
36. A basic sewing kit (needles and threads)
37. Safety pins
38. Swiss Army knife
39. Bobby pins (you can work wonder with these) (They come in two sizes - have some of each)
40. Pencils and paper, maybe even a notebook for a diary.
41. Musical instruments (harmonica, flute, guitar) to lift the spirit
42. Crazy glue
43. Patch kit
In the survival sense, think warm clothing, think fleece.
Those fleece throws (the single blankets) are great gifts, roll up nice and compact and are very useful as blankets, capes, padding for sleeping on the ground, tablecloths or even hung up on a leanto to break the wind.
By the time everyone adds their ideas to your list we will all need a U-haul on the back of that 4 wheel drive vehicle. Hey not a bad idea to learn how to build your own trailer, all you need is a spare axle, couple of wheels, a hitch and some wood.
44. Lots of good books to read.
45. .22 ammunition - amount stored should be 5000 rounds, not 500. It is small, inexpensive, and can be used as barter material if need be.
46. .30-30/.30-06 - other calibers to seriously consider are the .308, .270, .243, .223, and 7.62x39. Many people, myself included can't handle the recoil of a .30-06 (and I don't like .30-30). There are more rifles chambered in the calibers I mentioned than I can list, and all are good. It all depends on what you can afford. The amount of ammo one should store should be a minimum 1000 rounds, not 200.
47. A sturdy, fixed blade hunting knife should always be include. You can find these from Buck, Gerber, SOG, Camillus, Uncle Henry, and many others. I prefer the Camillus Pilot/Survival or Marine Combat knives. These have been made under contract for the US military for about four decades and have stood the test of time. They are also inexpensive ($25 and $35 respectively) so if one is lost or happens to break, you don't get as upset as you would should your Gerber BMF ($240) bite the dust.
48. Many people, myself included, have not been able to master the use of a sharpening stone. But with the use of a sharpening kit, such as those by Lansky, we can bring up a very sharp edge on our knives. Great for use on kitchen cutlery as well.
49. A pocket tool, such as those by Leatherman, Gerber, SOG, et al, are much more versatile than the Swiss Army Knife and their prices are comparable to the more expensive Swiss Army Knives. In the meantime, I will hang on to my SAK until I can afford a Leatherman Super Tool. (I still have a house to run.)
50. 200' to 500' of 550# test Paracord is a great addition to your supplies, especially when the 1/4" nylon cord/rope is too thick or not the right tool for the job.
51. Boiling water may be effective, but it is not the best way to purify water. Boiling removes the oxygen content and causes it to be flat. For EMERGENCY purposes only one can use un-scented household bleach to purify water, but you should use only 1/2 teaspoon per 5 gallons of water (1 tsp should the water be cloudy). The best method is to use HTH dry chlorine (65%), which can be purchased in bulk at stores like WalMart, Target, KMart, etc. (Also a great barter item.) The amount to use is 1/4 teaspoon (0.03 ounce) per 300 gallons for a 0.5 ppm of chlorine.
